I’ll Have a Side of Hypocrisy

Most right wingers (all?) favor gun rights.  The second amendment is likely to only amendment in the bill of rights they actually know at least part of the text of.

Among others reasons is that they object to law abiding gun owners being lumped in with gun toting outlaws.  Fair enough.

The trouble is these same people will agree with this:

They

Whose ‘them’?  But we all know don’t we?  Muslims of course.  Not so much individual persons who choose to call themselves Muslims, no an undifferentiated mass like mold. 

Except that’s totally wrong.  Muslims are divided into Shiites, Sunnis and others.  Some have been terrorists, but most Muslims just want to live their lives, maybe by coming to the US.

Claiming that Muslims are dangerous is just like the nation’s fear about Jews and Catholic in early 20th century.  My grandparents were afraid of Catholics.  In time they met a Catholic family from Belgium, and found Their  fears were groundless.  Since then a Catholic has been President, and I married a Catholic and we will have our 30th anniversary soon.  Of course some Catholics were terrorists in the IRA.  The point is people are not all the most negative stereotype, even when there’s some truth to it.

If you recognize this for gun owners, you need to recognize it for Muslims.

What do we do in a Second Trump Term?

Trump looks likely to win another term.  His poll numbers are up following being acquitted – he’s riding high like OJ!

The Trump presidency has been awful.  What other president in your memory called to imprison his political opponent – remember ‘Lock her up’.  He’s actually shrank national monuments.  He seems indifferent to racist murders.  He locks up children in cages for the crime of coming to the US looking looking for a better life.  He does his best to kill better access to medical care, and only offers vague ideas on a replacement.  He muses over punishing those who oppose him:  remember ‘opening up’ libel laws.  He wants to bring torture back-despite no evidence that it is better than alternatives. 

But for me personally do I have anything to lose and what can I do about it?

Much of what he does pains me, but I’m safe from much of the worst that is to come.  I’m a white male, so the racism and sexism isn’t directly aimed at me.  My healthcare is not under Obamacare, so I’m good there. 

On the other hand, I do like national parks.  Their future is uncertain at best with a real estate developer in the White House.  Trump has hair-trigger temper and could get us into a war-especially after he is no longer worried about re-election.  If the draft were to come back in some misguided paranoid war against Iran, more child could end up called up. 

Perhaps the most immediate Risk, is more government spying.  Trump is pretty paranoid, and I can see him doubling up on policing to track down illegals.  This could translate into more government spying.  While few of us are the object of this paranoia, we will be subject to scrutiny.

This could grow out of Mr. Trump’s obsession with finding his enemies and those who are disloyal.  Admittedly, I and most of us are too obscure to be of interest.  None the less again we may be caught in the net.  Also, the desire to seek out the disloyal may come down from the  top to lower levels, especially if you’re a government employee.

So what do we do?  I’d suggest looking into a VPN.  These can help keep your online activity more private.  You can search for providers online.

Another risk, is crackdowns based on ethnicity.  If your Muslim especially you’re at obvious risk.  From another angle consider the corna virus.  If the virus truly becomes an epidemic, it could kick in all the Trump’s xenophobia, and germ phobia.  If you have family in Asia it may become hard to visit them. 

Maybe this is far fetched, but could at least Asians with regular contacts with family in a nation impacted by the virus be subject to a quarantine.  It doesn’t seem likely, but a lot of unlikely things happened in the first Trump term, and after re-election he’ll be more off the rails.

What to do?  I’d suggest everyone really should have a passport.

Trump’s Gonna Be Re-Elected

I’d like lots of things to happen.   The 49ers win the super bowl.  I win the lottery and win a billion.   A more peaceful world.  Widely accessible health care.  People able to live or move where they like, as long as they contribute to the community and work hard

But this is real life, and a lot of those things won’t happen.  Life is unfair and bad things happen.  One of those bad things is likely to Donald Trump being re-elected.

I’ve often expressed why I think he’s not who should be in the White House.  His instincts are to punch down.  His policies are bad:  a pointless trade war that has mostly just resulted in a few trade agreement changes that could have been reached at a lower cost; trying to  undo progress since the end of WWII on the environment (while taking credit for the cleanest environment); limits to immigration even by very talented; ignoring how the US has made world a better place for all in favor of ‘America first.  He apparently intends to us federal law enforcement, and intelligence agencies to attack his enemies and to support and enrich himself and his friends.

Moreover, he’s a TERRIBLE PERSON, irrespective of his policies.  He lies and then lies about the lies.  He really only cares about one thing:  how does Donald Trump WIN.  He’s at best amoral, and more likely just plain evil.  Yet, he tries to wrap himself in a robe of Christianity. 

All this said, here’s the worst of it.  I think he’s going to be re-elected and be in the White House at least 5 more years, unless God takes him home first.

There are lots of reasons to think this.  First, a president who isn’t drafting people for an unpopular war, and has an economy not in recession – is hard to beat.

Going back to 1950.  The only incumbent presidents defeated:

Gerald Ford – defeated by a poor economy

Jimmy Carter-defeated by a poor economy

Georg HW Bush-defeated by a poor economy

Trump can claim credit for continued job growth that has been going on since the early Obama administration.  You may argue he doesn’t deserve much credit and be right-but it still points to a Trump win.

Wars drag on and there is legitimate to worry that Trump will get us into more, especially if he get another term.  But his risky killing of the Iranian general Soleimini seems to have had no bad consequences – yet.  Without, most American feeling imposed on by a war, this points to a Trump win.

Do the Democrats have a challenger that can overcome this?

Well, before impeachment, I would have said maybe Biden.  Now, I wouldn’t.  I think he’s been sunk by six months of implications about some vague corruption involving Ukraine, Burisma and Hunter Biden.  It’s the equivalent of 2016’s ‘but her emails’.  A charge that mostly suggested some hidden dirt – with no real substance.

The remaining moderates:  Amy K and mayor Pete have their charms but in the end lack of recognition and experience kills them both.

So what about Bernie or maybe Warren.  I just don’t see the US electing a hard leftist – at least not without a major economic downturn like the Depression or at least another Great Recession.

Master Stroke, or has He had a Stroke

President Trump is nothing if not sometimes surprising.  He proved that again today by agreeing a Democratic plan to extend the debt ceiling for only 3 months in exchange for money for flood relief.   Republican leaders had wanted a longer extension of perhaps 18 months.  Democrats have gotten something in exchange for keeping the government open – which they clearly wanted anyway.

Blunder?

It appears to set the Democrats in a position to use the same leverage in December to wind more benefits for their constituencies.  The Republican leaders now are not on the same page as the President.  Much of the conservative establishment is upset as well.  So one can see the downside of this move.

Is there an upside?  Maybe.

I think Mr. Trump is still smarting from his experience with Obamacare.  He never misses a chance to point to how the GOP leadership couldn’t deliver a plan to replace Obamacare and the votes to enact it as well.  The majority was to splintered and plagued by those unwilling to take a half a loaf to legislate.  I think Mr. Trump feared a small contingent of far right Republicans would make it impossible to pass the debt extension.  He didn’t trust the same old team to perform better, and wanted to try something different.  He fired his Republican legislative team in a way.  We  all know that Donald Trump loves to say:  “you’re fired”.

This really seems unsurprising given the Presidant’s history.  He had taken a number of unconservative positions, such as supporting abortion rights and single-payer health insurance, before he was a candidate.  Even during the campaign he was distinguished by support of social security.  In general, Donald Trump really doesn’t seem to have a strong ideological rooting in conservatism.  He is more of big state nationalist (big military, regulation of Trade, even more so immigration).  At worst he a tribalist.

Will this work for him?  It may be a route he can use in the future.  It may make congressional Republicans quicker to deliver to avoid being abandoned for the Democrates.  Much has been made of alienation of Mr. Trump’s base.  I think that’s overblown.  I think Trump’s base is mostly bored by the debt ceiling issue and tax and spending issues.  Maybe they should be as at the end of the day the debt ceiling was going to be increased as required by the budget and taxes already arrived.  Setting a debt ceiling makes no sense in fact and at the end doesn’t really matter much.

Trump’s base is  much more motivated by immigration issues and and their anxiety about social issues like immigration, and tough cops.  Maybe DACA being rescinded was to keep the based fired up after the debt ceiling decision dropped.  I think professional conservatives are upset, but the base is not.  Trump relationship with Washington conservatives has never been that close.

Finally the move can be called a move to bipartisanship.  In short this still could be a smart move.  There is a final downside though.  I have wondered if on healthcare Trump could make a push for singlepayer with the Democrats.  This would diminish or eliminate Obamacare, and people would no longer think of Obama as the man who increased access to healthcare.

On the other hand, impeachment might be more possible as well. Iif the Russia investigation continues and results in something damning, the Trump ace in the hole is that his party controls congress and is not going to impeach one would assume.  If the GOP congress is angry enough this might no longer be true.

A Question for Gun Rights Advocates

Having just proclaimed my doubts about gun restrictions on practical and individual rights grounds, I have a pointed question for those who advocated gun rights.

If you could make the world weapons free, would you?

It seems to me that you can object to gun limits on two grounds.  First, practicality.  That is say it won’t work.  The intent of gun laws may be good , but they are unenforceable in practice, especially against people who already have no problem with breaking the law.  The   second is on principle alone.  Even if gun laws could reduce murder and other crimes, I think I prefer the freedom to own weapons to that.

I think those who advocate for gun rights usually use arguments of practicality, but tend to feel more passionately about the first.  Political success seems more likely by focusing on the impracticality of gun limits regardless of feelings on principle.

My question if answered affirmatively would make that clear.  So how about it?

Orlando

So the worst gun disaster yet. Gun controls are again being pursued by many.

My thinking on guns has evolved mostly against it, or at least pursuing it at this time. Why?

First, past experience suggests that a lot of arguments will be exchanged, but nothing will happen. Already we’ve seen a filibuster to push gun limits and it failed. President Obama has spent a lot of political capital on this issue to no avail. I think if Sandy Hook didn’t move the needle on gun control, then nothing will. Over time gun ownership is declining, and in a few more decades, the political practically might be there, but it isn’t now. That said pursuing it will just divert attention from other issues and in the end accomplish nothing. Why do that.

Second, if any limit actually passed, I’m certain there will be massive evasion of the new limits. Given the passion in favor of an unfettered second amendment right, I can’t imagine that all gun owners going to enthusiastically comply with the new laws. It seems more likely to be a parallel to Noble Experiment of Prohibition: reducing respect for laws; and widely disobeyed. To truly enforce limits on guns in a country with such a large stock of weapons and fondness for them would require the most draconian enforcement. If you assume we can’t round up illegal aliens practically, then I don’t think you can argue we can do the same with illegal guns.

Third, even if obeyed by some it almost certainly will not stop most mass shooters – like in Orlando. The Orlando shooter with his security background seems likely to have had a number ways to acquire weapons legally or otherwise.

A significant reduction in gun ownership could save lives. I don’t think it would have those in Orlando however. The lives that fewer guns would save would victims of crimes of passion perpetrated by their family and friends. Even this result would require a LOT fewer privately held guns. Again, making that happen would require massive and very intrusive enforcement. I don’t want to see the intrusion on private rights that draconian gun regulation would entail on principle. Even if gun restriction could save live, I do believe weapons ownership is a right in a free society, and should not be infringed upon.

War on Easter?

Three months ago, we were hearing again about the war on Christmas, including outrage about non-religious greating such as Happy Holidays.  Now we are leading up to the Easter season.  No similar problem?

This occurred to me today in church.  I haven’t heard any complaints about a war on easter.  Why?

I think it is because Easter hasn’t been turned into such a commercial opportunity, while trying to maintain it as a spiritual holiday as well.

Christmas is the key to many profits of many businesses.  Black Friday is crucial to being in the black.  That is certainly true for Christian business people.  But there is schizophrenia about this.

People want to use the holiday for their commercial purposes, but still insist on keeping it as a religious observation.  The first objective doesn’t go well with the second.  People want to use the holdiay to bring both believer and non-belivers into their businesses by bringing non-Christians into Chrismas.  It doesn’t work to draw the non-believer into your religious holiday for secular purposes  and then fault the need to show those non-believers some deference by recognizing their not sharing your faith.

I think if Chistians want to not have greeting like Happy Holidays, then they needed to treat Christmas like Easter – a holiday for Christians only, not a commercial opportunity.  You can’t have it both ways.