I’d like lots of things to happen. The 49ers win the super bowl. I win the lottery and win a billion. A more peaceful world. Widely accessible health care. People able to live or move where they like, as long as they contribute to the community and work hard
But this is real life, and a lot of those things won’t happen. Life is unfair and bad things happen. One of those bad things is likely to Donald Trump being re-elected.
I’ve often expressed why I think he’s not who should be in the White House. His instincts are to punch down. His policies are bad: a pointless trade war that has mostly just resulted in a few trade agreement changes that could have been reached at a lower cost; trying to undo progress since the end of WWII on the environment (while taking credit for the cleanest environment); limits to immigration even by very talented; ignoring how the US has made world a better place for all in favor of ‘America first. He apparently intends to us federal law enforcement, and intelligence agencies to attack his enemies and to support and enrich himself and his friends.
Moreover, he’s a TERRIBLE PERSON, irrespective of his policies. He lies and then lies about the lies. He really only cares about one thing: how does Donald Trump WIN. He’s at best amoral, and more likely just plain evil. Yet, he tries to wrap himself in a robe of Christianity.
All this said, here’s the worst of it. I think he’s going to be re-elected and be in the White House at least 5 more years, unless God takes him home first.
There are lots of reasons to think this. First, a president who isn’t drafting people for an unpopular war, and has an economy not in recession – is hard to beat.
Going back to 1950. The only incumbent presidents defeated:
Gerald Ford – defeated by a poor economy
Jimmy Carter-defeated by a poor economy
Georg HW Bush-defeated by a poor economy
Trump can claim credit for continued job growth that has been going on since the early Obama administration. You may argue he doesn’t deserve much credit and be right-but it still points to a Trump win.
Wars drag on and there is legitimate to worry that Trump will get us into more, especially if he get another term. But his risky killing of the Iranian general Soleimini seems to have had no bad consequences – yet. Without, most American feeling imposed on by a war, this points to a Trump win.
Do the Democrats have a challenger that can overcome this?
Well, before impeachment, I would have said maybe Biden. Now, I wouldn’t. I think he’s been sunk by six months of implications about some vague corruption involving Ukraine, Burisma and Hunter Biden. It’s the equivalent of 2016’s ‘but her emails’. A charge that mostly suggested some hidden dirt – with no real substance.
The remaining moderates: Amy K and mayor Pete have their charms but in the end lack of recognition and experience kills them both.
So what about Bernie or maybe Warren. I just don’t see the US electing a hard leftist – at least not without a major economic downturn like the Depression or at least another Great Recession.