The Latest Odds on Palin, Ahmadinejad, Strauss-Kahn, and … Another Recession?


 

Photo: david_shankbone

Interesting browsing these days on the prediction market InTrade, which is still mourning the loss of its founder John Delaney (a man I very much enjoyed knowing a bit the past few years):

1. Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 62.0% chance
2. Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012: 29.6%
3. Sarah Palin to formally announce a run for President before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011: 41.9%
4. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to no longer be President of Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011: 31.0%
5. Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be guilty of at least one charge: 84.0%
6. Christine Lagarde to be named the next Managing Director of the IMF: 85.0%
7. The U.S. Economy will go into Recession during 2012: 20.0%

We should assume that Nos. 1 and 7 are inversely correlated. I went to the site this morning looking to see if there’s a contract out on Lloyd Blankfein, having read this (NYT) article, but I don’t see one (yet?).

The Latest Odds on Palin, Ahmadinejad, Strauss-Kahn, and … Another Recession?
Stephen J. Dubner
Fri, 03 Jun 2011 14:33:55 GMT

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One response to “The Latest Odds on Palin, Ahmadinejad, Strauss-Kahn, and … Another Recession?

  1. I think I will try this prediction betting. Seems more fun than sports. I believe Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected. Mainly because of lack of competition. Palin and Trump are clowns and Romney is too bland. It’s all about personality.

    Scary though with the assassination bets. Giving people an incentive to kill someone seems like bad karma.

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